Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Volatility Near 2-Year Low Is IBIT’s Gain, Strategy’s Pain
Bitcoin’s price stability near its all-time high is reflected in Google search trends, which show significantly reduced retail interest. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) is near a two-year low, and Deribit’s implied volatility metrics confirm market stagnation. This subdued activity has led MicroStrategy (MSTR) to issue preferred equity instead of common stock to maintain its mNAV above 1, while the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) benefits from attracting risk-averse investors.
The upcoming U.S. jobs report is a potential market catalyst. Expected unemployment of 4.2% and non-farm payrolls of 130,000 could trigger volatility if deviated from. Upcoming events include a U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on digital assets, Sia’s V2 hard fork activation, and a U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on DeFi. The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act markup is also scheduled. 21Shares will execute a 3-for-1 share split for its ARK Bitcoin ETF.
Pump.fun’s rumored $1 billion token sale and airdrop have caused concern among traders of Pump.fun-spawned memecoins, who worry about liquidity and supply pressures. Deribit’s BTC options open interest hit a record high, with call-side dominance indicating bullish sentiment, while high liquidation leverage near $104,000-$108,000 presents potential risk.
Ether (ETH) shows resilience, holding above its 200-day exponential moving average. Sustained market strength could push ETH beyond $3,000. Crypto equities like MSTR, COIN, and others show mixed performance. Spot BTC and ETH ETF flows remain strong, with significant daily and cumulative inflows.
June has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin. Recent news includes Truth Social’s planned Bitcoin ETF, MARA’s record Bitcoin production, and profit-taking after the golden cross. Geopolitical factors like escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and the impact of sanctions on Russia are also relevant to the market.
