Tom Lee Mulls Roughed-Up Semler Scientific for ‘Granny Shot’ Portfolio

Semler Scientific (SMLR), a medical technology company that shifted to a bitcoin-focused treasury strategy, serves as a cautionary tale for firms adopting this approach. Despite accumulating significant bitcoin holdings, its stock performance has been underwhelming, falling nearly 50% in 2025, effectively erasing gains made since the company began its BTC accumulation. This downturn has crucial implications for its future strategy.

A key metric highlighting Semler’s struggles is its multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV), which has dropped below 1x. This means the company’s market capitalization is less than the value of its bitcoin holdings. Specifically, with a market cap of approximately $420 million and bitcoin holdings valued at around $491 million (4,449 BTC), the mNAV stands at 0.859x, according to Strategy-Tracker.

This sub-1.0 mNAV presents a significant roadblock to Semler’s growth strategy. The company primarily raises capital through share sales to acquire more bitcoin. However, issuing new shares at a price below the NAV dilutes existing shareholders without proportionally increasing the value of their holdings. In essence, the current market valuation renders this share-issuance strategy ineffective, effectively halting Semler’s bitcoin accumulation efforts.

The situation underscores the inherent risks of a bitcoin-centric treasury strategy. While bitcoin’s price volatility is a known factor, Semler’s experience demonstrates the vulnerability of a company heavily reliant on this asset’s performance for shareholder value creation. A declining stock price, coupled with a sub-1.0 mNAV, creates a vicious cycle, limiting future capital raises and potentially jeopardizing the company’s long-term viability.

Interestingly, despite the negative performance, renowned bitcoin bull Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat, sees Semler as a potential opportunity. This perspective, part of Fundstrat’s “Granny Shot” (GRNY) portfolio, which focuses on unconventional investment approaches, highlights the diverse opinions and risk assessments within the cryptocurrency investment community. Semler’s case clearly illustrates the complexities and potential pitfalls of corporate bitcoin adoption and emphasizes the importance of careful consideration of market dynamics before embarking on such a strategy.