Spot Crypto ETF Filings for XRP, SOL, DOGE Among Those With Overwhelming SEC Approval Odds: Bloomberg

The likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the majority of pending crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has significantly increased, according to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. Their revised estimations place the odds of approval for most spot crypto ETF filings at 90% or higher. This surge in optimism stems from the SEC’s increased engagement with ETF issuers, viewed as a positive indicator of willingness to collaborate.

This heightened probability encompasses a broad range of cryptocurrencies. ETFs for assets such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano have all surpassed the 90% approval threshold in Bloomberg’s assessment. The analysts interpret the SEC’s requests for S-1 amendments and 19b-4 acknowledgements—the back-and-forth process of regulatory review—as evidence of a shift toward greater cooperation and a higher propensity for approval.

This positive outlook is not solely confined to Bloomberg’s analysis. Polymarket bettors reflect a similar sentiment, assigning remarkably high probabilities to the approval of several key crypto ETFs. Specifically, bettors estimate a 98% chance of an XRP ETF receiving approval this year, a 91% chance for a Solana ETF, and a 71% chance for a Dogecoin ETF.

However, not all cryptocurrencies share this optimistic outlook. Sui (SUI), with only one ETF filing by Canary, lags considerably behind, with a significantly lower 60% chance of approval assigned by Bloomberg. This disparity is attributed to a lack of regulated futures markets for SUI and lingering regulatory uncertainties surrounding the asset. The differing probabilities highlight the diverse regulatory landscape and the varying degrees of SEC scrutiny applied to different cryptocurrencies. The overall trend, however, points toward a markedly increased likelihood of SEC approval for a substantial number of crypto ETFs in the near future.