Asia Morning Briefing: Leverage Meets Patience as Bitcoin Builds Toward a Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) opened Asia trading above $105,500, a slight dip from its U.S. closing price of $107,000. Despite recent geopolitical instability, including the U.S. strike on Iran, BTC remains resilient, showing a 1% increase over the past month. This stability near its May all-time high of $111,000 contrasts with the December 2024 surge, which triggered significant profit-taking. Current market sentiment, however, suggests a more disciplined approach.
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a dominant “HODLing” strategy. Long-term holder supply has surged to 14.7 million BTC, with realized profits at historic lows. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovers near breakeven, indicating that recent acquisitions are driving current transactions rather than widespread distribution. The declining Liveliness metric further confirms the dormancy of older coins.
This long-term holder conviction is coupled with strong institutional demand. Last week saw $2.2 billion in net inflows into BTC spot ETFs, reinforcing a “constructive” market tone, as noted by QCP. This influx of capital is reflected in Bitcoin’s realized cap, which has grown to $955 billion, signifying a shift towards real capital investment rather than pure speculation.
However, underlying tensions remain. Leveraged long positions are increasing, and funding rates are turning positive across major perpetual futures markets. Glassnode cautions that the market might need upward or downward movement to unlock further supply, suggesting the current equilibrium is unsustainable.
The recent Senate approval of the “Big Beautiful Bill” had minimal impact on BTC, highlighting a standoff between long-term holders and short-term leveraged traders. The next catalyst remains uncertain, potentially leading to a significant price movement.
Further developments include Figma’s $70 million investment in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and DDC Enterprise’s plan to purchase 5,000 BTC over three years following a $528 million capital raise. DeFi Development Corp. also announced a $100 million convertible note offering to further its Solana (SOL) accumulation strategy. Elsewhere, Ethereum experienced significant selling pressure, while gold and the S&P 500 showed mixed performance.
