Stone Cold BTC Drains Bull Mood From Long-Term Options: Crypto Daybook Americas
Bitcoin’s price stagnation above $100,000 for over 50 days has unexpectedly reduced the bullish bias in long-term options. Risk reversals for June 2026 Deribit options are near zero, indicating equal call and put trading. Historically, long-term risk reversals are positive, favoring calls. This shift could become negative due to continued downside volatility and institutional selling of calls and buying of puts. Despite consistent Bitcoin purchases by companies like MicroStrategy, spot demand remains weak, with blockchain analysis showing long-term holders taking profits. Upcoming U.S. consumer price data is a key market focus following Friday’s strong jobs report.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s cultural relevance is increasing, as evidenced by mentions in Drake’s music and Elon Musk’s announcement of the America First Party, which supports Bitcoin. This mainstream attention could positively impact investor confidence over time. In other developments, Vitalik Buterin and Toni Wahrstätter proposed EIP-7983 for Ethereum, aiming to limit transaction gas usage and enhance resilience against denial-of-service attacks. Russia also introduced a national registry for cryptocurrency mining equipment.
Traditional markets saw early oil price drops due to increased OPEC production, later offset by tight market conditions. Upcoming events include the Isthmus hardfork activation on Celo, a Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s restructuring, and the launch of Alchemist staking and Lynq’s digital asset settlement network. Macroeconomic events include the BRICS summit, a Trump-Netanyahu meeting, and the release of Brazilian and Mexican inflation data. A Senate Banking Committee hearing on digital asset markets is also scheduled. Several token events are planned, including governance votes on Compound and Polkadot, and numerous token unlocks.
Bitcoin’s spot and futures trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels in over a year, potentially making the market vulnerable to large orders. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin whales accumulating while smaller holders sell, suggesting a shift from retail to institutional investors. Metaplanet’s Bitcoin purchase increased its holdings to 15,555 BTC. The Blockchain Group also boosted its Bitcoin reserves. Geopolitical factors include strained relations between China and Russia regarding Iran, and ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict discussions.
