Bitcoin Demand Outstrips Supply Ahead of August Lull: Crypto Daybook Americas
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, settling 7% below its June 14 all-time high. While double-digit corrections are common within bull markets, the largest drawdown since January 2023 reached 30%. A key technical indicator to watch is the CME Bitcoin Futures gap between $114,355 and $115,670, which often gets filled upon price revisits.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) significantly increased its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred stock sale, totaling over $2.5 billion and potentially creating demand for 21,500 BTC at $115,000. Despite this, on-chain data from Glassnode reveals that demand outpaces supply. Over 210,000 BTC were sold by long-term holders (holding for over 155 days), while short-term holders bought approximately 250,000 BTC this month. Bitcoin’s performance remains consistent with its historical July average of 7% returns since 2013, currently sitting 8% higher than its month’s start. Ether (ETH) surged over 46%, trading near $3,725, marking its third 40%+ increase since November.
Upcoming events include Starknet’s mainnet launch (July 28), a webinar on Bitcoin as a reserve currency (July 31), Helium Network’s halving event (August 1), and Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance taking effect (August 1). Macroeconomic data releases include U.S. durable goods orders (July 25), Mexico’s unemployment rate (July 28), and new U.S. tariffs (August 1). Several companies, including PayPal, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Reddit, are set to release earnings reports in late July and early August.
Numerous governance votes are underway, impacting Aavegotchi, Lido, Gnosis, and NEAR protocols. Several tokens, including Jupiter, Optimism, and Sui, will unlock portions of their circulating supply in late July and early August. The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference is scheduled for September 10th.
The death of Hulk Hogan sparked a surge in related memecoins, highlighting the speculative nature and risks associated with such assets. Open interest for Bitcoin derivatives remains at all-time highs, with Binance leading. ETH perpetual volumes currently exceed BTC volumes. Volmex’s Bitcoin and Ether Volatility Futures have surpassed $10 million in volume since launch. Digital assets firm OSL secured $300 million to expand globally.
