Bitcoin’s Momentum Is Losing Steam as Seasonal Headwinds Loom, 10x Research Says
Bitcoin’s price consolidation below $120,000 is raising concerns, particularly given August’s historically weak performance for the cryptocurrency. A report from 10x Research highlights this trend, noting that August has yielded negative returns in seven out of the past ten years, with losses ranging from 5% to 20%. This contrasts with positive performance in only three years: 2013, 2017, and 2021 – all post-halving years associated with significant bull markets.
The report underscores a slowing of capital inflows into the Bitcoin network, a key factor driving price increases in 2025. While cumulative inflows exceed $1 trillion, with $206 billion added this year alone, the 30-day rolling average has declined from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion. This decrease mirrors patterns observed at previous peaks in this metric, such as Q1 and Q4 2024, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.
10x Research’s Markus Thielen points out the muted price impact of substantial capital inflows, even from corporate treasuries. This raises concerns that even with continued support, Bitcoin may underperform expectations. The report projects a potential break below $117,000, with support levels identified at $112,000 and a more significant floor between $106,000 and $110,000.
Despite the bearish outlook, the possibility of a repeat of the positive August performance in 2013, 2017, and 2021 remains. These years coincided with post-halving bull markets, offering a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin bulls in 2025. The current situation presents a complex scenario: a historically weak month for Bitcoin, coupled with slowing capital inflows, yet the potential for a positive outlier driven by the post-halving cycle. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can overcome these headwinds and continue its upward trajectory, or succumb to the bearish pressure. The report’s predictions, while cautionary, should be viewed alongside the historical context of Bitcoin’s performance following halving events.
