Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Slips Into Low-Liquidity “Air Gap” as Post-ATH Drift Continues
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $115,000, experiencing a post-all-time-high correction characterized by low volume and weak conviction. Glassnode analysis reveals BTC has entered a low-liquidity zone between $110,000 and $116,000, an “air gap” where trading activity is minimal. This zone could either serve as a base for accumulation or lead to further price drops if demand falters. While some opportunistic buying has occurred, with 120,000 BTC acquired on the dip, prices haven’t decisively reclaimed resistance levels, particularly around $116,900. Short-term holder profitability has decreased from 100% to 70%, a typical mid-phase bull market occurrence, but sustained lack of inflow could negatively impact sentiment. Negative ETF flows, with a -1.5K BTC outflow this week (the largest since April), and cooling funding rates in the derivatives market reflect reduced leverage and cautious speculation.
Market makers share this cautious outlook, describing the market as being in a fragile holding pattern with BTC and ETH struggling to inspire confidence. ETH is currently up 2% in the last 24 hours, trading just below $3,600, and the CoinDesk 20 Index gained 1.69% to 3,815.22. The market’s direction depends on whether buyers establish a base within the low-volume zone or if a further drop towards $110,000 is needed. Traders remain cautious, and bullish momentum remains unproven.
Potential scenarios for Bitcoin include a supply shock driven by decreasing OTC desk reserves and corporate accumulation, potentially impacting price action after a drop below $110,000. Ethereum might have formed a local top, with sell pressure reaching its second-highest on record at $419 million. A retest of a major resistance zone near $4,000 raises the risk of a 25-35% decline by September. Gold’s rally stalled due to profit-taking and factors such as rising Fed rate cut odds and trade tensions. Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 remaining flat amidst new U.S. semiconductor tariff threats. U.S. stock futures were flat, digesting the tariff news. Positive news includes industry leaders celebrating the SEC’s approval of liquid staking, potentially boosting institutional adoption. However, Roman Storm’s guilty verdict on unlicensed money transmitting charges casts a shadow. Finally, Trump Media’s testing of a “Truth Search” using Perplexity AI adds an intriguing element to the day’s events.
