Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert
Bitcoin’s price trajectory is a subject of ongoing debate among market analysts. A recent analysis employing the Elliott Wave Theory suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) in the near term, with a potential price surge to $140,000 before a bear market commences in 2026.
This prediction is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, a technical analysis approach that identifies predictable patterns in market movements. The theory posits that crowd psychology creates cyclical patterns, with five waves driving the primary trend (impulse waves) followed by three corrective waves. These 5-3 wave structures repeat across different scales, enabling analysts to forecast future price action.
According to John Glover, CIO of Ledn, BTC is currently in the third impulse wave (wave iii) of a larger extended impulse wave (wave 5). This wave iii is expected to reach a high of approximately $130,000 in the coming weeks, followed by a retracement (wave iv) to around $110,000 in September. Subsequently, the final impulse wave (wave v) will complete wave 5, culminating in a peak near $140,000 by the end of 2025.
Glover’s forecast contrasts with the prevailing belief that institutional adoption, particularly through ETFs, has disrupted Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which typically involve a price peak followed by a prolonged bear market. He acknowledges the potential for bullish arguments reaching as high as $250,000 to $500,000 in 2026, but maintains his prediction of a bear market beginning in 2026.
Recent market activity has seen Bitcoin decline by 4% in the past week, reaching lows below $112,000. This sell-off is characterized as a typical retracement wave, a temporary pause in the upward trend. The decline follows profit-taking by long-term holders near $120,000 and losses in crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN). Despite this recent downturn, Glover remains confident in his projection of a significant price rally before the anticipated bear market. The analysis highlights the complexity and uncertainty inherent in cryptocurrency markets, underscoring the importance of diverse perspectives and rigorous technical analysis.
