Bitcoin Tops $116K as Bullish Signals Spur Confidence: Crypto Daybook Americas
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to its highest level this month, exceeding $116,430, driven by renewed demand for risk assets following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. This fueled expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, a prospect supported by the CME’s FedWatch tool (93.4% probability) and, to a lesser extent, Polymarket (79%). Traders anticipate further rate reductions in subsequent meetings.
Positive corporate earnings and a weakening U.S. dollar also contributed to the bullish sentiment, boosting equities and risk assets. The Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all saw significant gains. The State of Michigan Retirement System increased its bitcoin exposure through spot ETFs, signaling institutional interest.
Despite the price rise, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by the BVIV index, fell to 36.5%, its lowest since October 2023. This low volatility, reminiscent of Wall Street bull markets, may be influenced by structured crypto projects offering yield through out-of-the-money call options.
Geopolitical risks remain, however. New tariffs imposed by President Trump on India and ongoing tensions in Ukraine create uncertainty. Upcoming events include a Circle webinar on the GENIUS Act, FTX distributions, and Coinbase Derivatives launching new futures contracts. The Bank of England, the Brazilian and Mexican central banks will announce monetary policy decisions. Several crypto companies will report earnings. Various DAOs are conducting governance votes. Significant token unlocks are scheduled for several projects. Several conferences are planned.
The Solana-based Troll memecoin experienced a dramatic surge, but the creator of the original Trollface meme disavows the token, highlighting the tension between internet culture and tokenized financialization.
Bitcoin futures open interest remains strong, with CME showing a significant market share, suggesting institutional engagement. ETH and XRP futures open interest also increased, reflecting institutional re-entry and ETF speculation. Funding rates remain elevated across major cryptocurrencies. Market movements show BTC, ETH, and various indices experiencing gains, while the DXY remains unchanged. Spot BTC and ETH ETF flows remain positive. Top crypto traders on Binance exhibited bullish sentiment before Bitcoin’s recent recovery.
