Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Rebounds Toward $115K as ETF Flows Return, but Traders Still Price Tail Risk
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of stabilization, trading above $115,000 after last week’s selloff, which saw over $1 billion in leveraged longs liquidated. This rebound coincides with reports of stabilizing institutional flows, including $18.74 million in net inflows reported by Bitwise, a potential turnaround after a significant ETF outflow on Friday.
The recent correction, BTC’s third consecutive Friday drop, was triggered by a combination of weak U.S. jobs data and new tariffs, creating a risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto. Altcoins suffered more severely, with Solana (SOL) falling nearly 20% and Ether (ETH) losing almost 10%.
Despite the downturn, QCP Capital remains cautiously optimistic, viewing the selloff as a leverage flush rather than a trend reversal. They point to BTC’s record-high monthly close in July and historical post-rally shakeouts as evidence. However, market hedging behavior suggests some investors anticipate further downside. Polymarket traders assign a 49% probability of BTC falling below $100,000 before 2025.
This reflects market uncertainty, with downside risk factored in despite positive long-term fundamentals like regulatory clarity, stablecoin adoption growth, and tokenization initiatives. The next market catalyst may emerge during the Asian trading day with U.S. issuer flow reports. Continued ETF inflows and decreasing implied volatility could confirm a “buy-the-dip” scenario, potentially easing market jitters.
Ether (ETH) remains steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence in it exceeding $4,000 in August. Gold extended its rally for a third session, reaching a two-week high due to soft U.S. economic data, increasing expectations of a September Fed rate cut (now at 86% probability according to CME traders). Asia-Pacific markets opened higher following President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on Indian exports, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 0.54%. The S&P 500 rebounded 1.47%, ending a four-day losing streak.
In other crypto news, Barry Silbert returned as chairman of Grayscale amid an IPO push; former Chancellor Osborne warned of the UK’s lagging crypto adoption; and Pantera led a $20 million funding round for OpenMind’s decentralized robot operating system.
