Asia Morning Briefing: Crypto Rally Stalls, ETH Flows May Decide What Comes Next
The crypto market shows signs of caution as institutions take profits, leading to decreased ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s struggle to break $120,000. While Bitcoin briefly touched all-time highs, the market has consolidated, with Glassnode data revealing an 80% drop in institutional ETF inflows this week, totaling $496 million, alongside a decline in trading volume to $18.7 billion. Bitcoin’s spot market sentiment weakens, moving away from overbought levels.
Derivatives markets reflect similar trends. Funding rates for perpetual futures remain high (above 15%), suggesting aggressive long positions, but recent activity reveals profit-taking and hedging by major players. A significant ETH call was unwound, and substantial BTC put options were bought, indicating a less bullish outlook. Despite this, QCP Capital remains optimistic, citing momentum, narrative strength, and macro tailwinds. They anticipate buying dips, as seen on Friday.
Conversely, Enflux views the current situation as consolidation, not capitulation, with spot and perpetual markets showing stability. The firm believes the next market movement will depend on institutional ETH flows and whether capital returns to altcoins. Glassnode suggests fragility, Enflux neutrality, and QCP hedged optimism; however, the market’s next direction hinges on Ethereum’s performance.
Bitcoin currently trades at $118,000, consolidating between support ($114,000) and resistance near its all-time high ($123,000). Ethereum trades at $3,783, exhibiting a bullish pattern suggesting a potential rise to $4,300; however, neutral funding rates signal caution. Gold fell to a near three-week low ($1,313.57) due to a positive U.S.-EU trade deal. Asian markets opened lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.61%. The S&P 500 ended Monday nearly flat.
Other crypto news includes Bernstein’s cautious outlook on Ether treasuries, Ray Dalio’s recommendation to allocate 15% of portfolios to gold and Bitcoin, and Brevan Howard’s recruitment of a Thiel family office alum for their crypto initiative.
