Bitcoin Will Rally as U.S. Growth Improves, Crypto Bills Progress: Coinbase Research

Coinbase Research anticipates a positive crypto market outlook for the second half of 2025, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions, rising corporate interest in digital assets, and clearer regulatory frameworks. The report highlights a significant shift from a challenging first quarter, characterized by a brief U.S. GDP contraction and trade disruptions. Recent data, however, indicates stronger growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker projecting a robust 3.8% QoQ growth as of early June – a substantial increase from earlier projections.

This positive economic shift, coupled with anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and a less aggressive trade policy, has alleviated recessionary concerns and boosted investor confidence. The report suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may benefit from declining dollar dominance and its increasing use as an inflation hedge, even with potentially elevated long-dated U.S. Treasury yields. Conversely, altcoins are projected to lag unless supported by specific catalysts, such as ETF approvals or significant protocol advancements.

A notable trend is the growing number of public companies adding crypto assets to their balance sheets, facilitated by a 2024 rule change enabling “mark-to-market” accounting for digital assets. While this increases demand, it simultaneously introduces systemic risks. Companies financing crypto purchases with convertible debt face potential liquidation if refinancing becomes unavailable or prices decline sharply.

Regulatory clarity is expected to significantly impact the market. The Senate’s passage of the bipartisan GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill, awaits House approval. The CLARITY Act, a broader market structure bill, seeks to define the SEC and CFTC’s roles in overseeing digital assets, potentially clarifying regulations for both issuers and investors. Furthermore, the SEC’s review of over 80 crypto ETF applications, including proposals encompassing multi-asset funds, staking, and altcoins, could result in rulings as early as July, with the remainder anticipated by October.

In summary, Coinbase Research’s report suggests Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from both macroeconomic improvements and structural changes in the second half of 2025. The outlook for altcoins, however, remains contingent upon navigating a more intricate and developing regulatory and liquidity landscape. The impact of regulatory decisions and the evolving corporate adoption of crypto will be crucial factors shaping the market’s trajectory.