Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire Lifts Markets, Powell Eyed
Crypto markets experienced a surge on Wednesday, mirroring a broader rally in global equities following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Bitcoin’s price climbed to nearly $107,000, a 1.7% increase in 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 index gained 1%. However, this optimism might be short-lived, as concerns remain about the ceasefire’s durability. A leaked U.S. intelligence report questioning the effectiveness of recent strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities has fueled worries of renewed military action.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House of Representatives played a significant role in the rally. His cautious approach to interest rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and potential tariff pressures, provided market flexibility and supported risk assets. Softening U.S. consumer confidence data further reduced two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low, increasing the likelihood of a July rate cut to around 20%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. This contrasts with the 13% probability a week prior, and Polymarket traders assign an 18% chance. Powell’s Senate testimony will be closely watched, especially given President Trump’s continued pressure for lower interest rates.
Crypto derivatives desks indicate a neutral stance ahead of the June 27 expiry, with traders suggesting tight price action. However, call option buying points to a modest bullish inclination.
Upcoming events include the activation of the Core blockchain’s Theseus hard fork and the launch of the ZIGChain mainnet. The CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures for Bitcoin, Ether, and major U.S. equity indices, pending regulatory approval. The NATO Summit will discuss security and defense, and President Trump’s interpretation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is anticipated. Key economic data releases include durable goods orders, final Q1 GDP data, unemployment insurance data, and the Bank of Mexico’s interest rate decision. Several token events, governance votes, and unlocks are also scheduled.
