Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rallies Into July as Options, Futures Signal Indifference
Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience, rising 0.9% in the past 24 hours following a record monthly close in June. Historical data suggests July could be positive; BTC has increased in nine of the past ten Julys, averaging a 7% gain. Wintermute’s analysis reveals July uniquely combines strong returns with subdued investor sentiment, a trend observed over the past three years. However, the dollar’s current weakness, nearing a “death cross” on technical charts, could pose a challenge, as Bitcoin often inversely correlates with the DXY index.
Upcoming economic data, particularly the U.S. payrolls report, will offer insights into Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. President Trump’s trade policies and the potential addition of $3.3 trillion to the national debt add to market uncertainty. Despite this, corporate treasury holdings of Bitcoin continue to increase. Publicly listed companies added roughly 131,000 BTC in Q2, an 18% jump exceeding the 8% growth in U.S. spot-ETF holdings.
Key upcoming events include the July 2nd launch of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK), the first U.S. ETF combining SOL price exposure with staking rewards, and Lynq’s July 15th launch of a real-time digital asset settlement network for institutions.
Several governance votes are underway in various DAOs, including GnosisDAO, Radiant DAO, Arbitrum DAO, and the Polkadot Community. Significant token unlocks are scheduled for July, including Ethena (ENA), Immutable (IMX), Aptos (APT), Starknet (STRK), Sei (SEI), and Arbitrum (ARB). Binance will delist several tokens on July 4th. Numerous conferences are planned for July and beyond.
Bitcoin and Ether futures open interest remains flat, suggesting a lack of trader interest. XRP shows increased open interest, while SOL, BCH, SUI, XLM, and SHIB exhibit negative funding rates. Options risk reversals indicate a lack of clear directional bias in short-term BTC and ETH markets.
Recent market movements show BTC up 1.62%, ETH up 1.33%, and the CoinDesk 20 up 1.36%. Crypto equities show mixed performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others decline. Spot BTC ETF daily net flows are negative, while ETH ETF flows are positive. Coinbase’s Base layer-2 blockchain saw a significant drop in ETH deposits, for currently unknown reasons.
