XRP, SOL Slide; Focus on Bitcoin-Yen’s ‘Descending Triangle’ as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise
Bitcoin’s price in USD remains uncertain, fluctuating near major moving averages. However, analysis of the BTC/JPY pair on bitFlyer reveals a descending triangle pattern near record highs, typically considered bearish. The pattern’s downward-sloping upper trendline suggests increasing seller strength. A break below the horizontal support at ¥17,160,000 ($117,000) would confirm a bearish reversal, shifting focus to the rising trendline support. Conversely, a breakout above the triangle could lead to new all-time highs. Interestingly, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026, currently priced at roughly 76 basis points (up from 25 in April), and rising long-term government bond yields suggest continued economic and market support, potentially bolstering Bitcoin’s price. However, the USD/JPY outlook is positive, with the spread between 30-year U.S.-Japan bond yields at its lowest since August 2022, signaling JPY strength. A yen rally could trigger risk aversion, potentially limiting Bitcoin gains.
XRP experienced a significant 10% drop in the past 24 hours, consistent with earlier bearish signals. Support was found at $2.99 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $1.9), but the subsequent recovery to $3.10 lacks momentum, as indicated by the bearish Guppy multiple moving average indicator. A retest of $2.99 is likely, with a potential drop to $2.57 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) if support fails. A move above $3.35 is needed to negate the bearish bias.
Ether continues to decline, forming a descending channel on the hourly chart. Bearish crossovers of moving averages and a position below the Ichimoku cloud reinforce the bearish outlook. Only a move above $3,740, reclaiming the cloud, would signal a bullish shift.
Solana mirrors Ether’s hourly chart, exhibiting a downward-sloping channel and bearish Guppy indicator, remaining below the Ichimoku cloud and the lower high of $192. Recovery rallies within the channel could face resistance at the channel’s upper boundary and the cloud’s underside.
