Crypto Daybook Americas: Altcoins Rally as ‘Complacent’ Bitcoin Points to Renewed Volatility
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $100,000, nearing its all-time high, yet options-based implied volatility remains low, suggesting a potential for significant price movement. Analyst Georgii Verbitskii anticipates a breakout to $115,000, potentially as early as May, contingent on continued global liquidity supporting Bitcoin. However, regulatory headwinds persist. The GENIUS Act, requiring issuers of digital currencies to maintain safe reserves and report monthly, faces potential defeat in the U.S. Senate. The SEC’s delayed decision on BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF in-kind redemptions adds uncertainty.
Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, with ETH, RAY, ENA, and MKR experiencing valuation increases. DeFi Development Corp.’s substantial Solana (SOL) treasury purchase contrasts with the growing trend of companies using Bitcoin to manage inflation. River, a Bitcoin-focused firm, highlights the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by companies across various sectors.
Several notable crypto events are scheduled: eToro’s Nasdaq IPO, Neo’s mainnet upgrade, the launch of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF, Galaxy Digital’s Nasdaq listing, CME Group’s XRP futures launch, and Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion. Macroeconomic data releases include Argentina’s inflation data, Brazilian retail sales, U.S. producer and consumer price inflation, retail sales, unemployment claims, and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Earnings reports are expected from several crypto-related companies.
Token events include Uniswap DAO governance votes, Jupiter and Yield Guild Games community updates, and Moca Network and Theta Network AMAs. Several tokens, including Starknet, Sei, Immutable, Arbitrum, and Avalanche, will experience scheduled unlocks. RIZE will list on Kraken, while several tokens will be delisted from Coinbase. Several crypto conferences are scheduled, including CoinDesk’s Consensus in Toronto.
Synthetix is considering acquiring Derive, an Ethereum-based options trading platform, in a $27 million token swap deal. This has caused some controversy due to valuation concerns among Derive users. Meanwhile, LAUNCHCOIN, formerly Pasternak, experienced a significant price surge due to its association with Believe’s token issuance platform. Derivatives market indicators show mixed sentiment, with bullish positions in BTC calls and bearish positions in ETH puts on Deribit. BTC spot volume delta has turned positive, indicating increased real demand. Finally, Standard Chartered will provide banking services for FalconX, enhancing cross-border digital asset settlement.
