Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Whiplash Shakes Market as U.S. Yield Spike Threatens Bull Run
Bitcoin’s price started the week above $107,000, its highest since January 24th, before retracting to $102,000. Despite this, the upward trend continues, forming higher highs and lows within an ascending channel. Bitcoin’s market dominance exceeded 64%, and options market data shows a bullish bias, with significant call open interest above $100,000 for May 30th expiry. Glassnode data indicates widespread accumulation across all wallet cohorts.
However, caution is warranted. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt, raising concerns. This yield level previously coincided with Bitcoin’s price drop to $75,000. The U.K. surpassed China as the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, and Tether’s Treasury holdings are nearing surpassing Germany’s.
Key upcoming events include CME Group launching XRP futures and Coinbase replacing Discover in the S&P 500 on May 19th. May 30th marks the second round of FTX repayments. Macroeconomic events include a post-Brexit U.K.-EU summit, President Trump’s calls to Putin and Zelenskyy, and a G7 finance ministers’ meeting.
In the crypto market, Arbitrum DAO is voting on a bounty program and a network upgrade. Lido, Maple Finance, and Theta Network have scheduled community calls and announcements. Several tokens, including Pyth, Optimism, Sui, and Ethena, will have supply unlocks. Various conferences are scheduled throughout May and June.
Elon Musk’s renewed “Kekius Maximus” persona on X led to a significant surge in the KEKIUS memecoin, highlighting his influence on speculative crypto markets. Derivatives market open interest remains relatively stable, with notable gains in PAXG, PEPE, TON, and ALCH, and declines in PNUT, POPCAT, BONK, and SHIB. Short-term hedging intensified ahead of May 23rd and 30th expiries.
Bitcoin’s technical analysis shows a potential move toward $94,000-$99,000 if range lows break. Crypto equity performance shows mixed results. Spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw significant inflows. Bitcoin long-term holder supply is nearing a one-year high. News from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal highlight concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the impact of trade wars on China’s economy. CoinDesk reports on Galaxy Digital’s focus shifting towards AI data centers.
