Bitcoin Bounces After War-Driven Dip, $98.2K Emerges as Key Level to Maintain Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price (STH RP), a key on-chain metric reflecting the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held outside exchanges and moved within the last 155 days, currently stands at $98,200. This Glassnode data-derived indicator offers valuable insight into market sentiment by focusing on the acquisition price of recently active coins—those statistically more likely to be sold and thus highly sensitive to market fluctuations. The STH RP differentiates short-term from long-term holders, providing a more nuanced view than the overall realized price, which considers the entire circulating supply.
Recent market activity saw Bitcoin briefly dip below this crucial threshold amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. The conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with rising concerns of US-Iran escalation, triggered a sell-off in liquid assets like Bitcoin over the weekend. With traditional markets closed, this selling pressure stemmed more from necessity than outright bearish sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price trajectory relative to the STH RP has provided a reliable indicator of market trends. Periods where Bitcoin trades above the STH RP are generally associated with bullish momentum, while prolonged periods below suggest bearish sentiment or market consolidation.
Two notable examples illustrate this relationship. From June to October 2024, Bitcoin remained below the STH RP, which was then around $62,000, coinciding with the period leading up to the US presidential election. A similar pattern emerged from February to April 2025, when Bitcoin again traded below the STH RP, which stood at approximately $92,000.
Bitcoin has since rebounded strongly, surpassing $100,000 and currently trading around $101,000. However, maintaining this bullish trajectory hinges critically on Bitcoin staying above the $98,200 STH RP level. Sustained trading above this key support level would reinforce positive market sentiment and signal a continuation of the recent uptrend. Conversely, a sustained fall below this level could indicate a return to bearish conditions or a period of extended consolidation. Therefore, close monitoring of Bitcoin’s price relative to the STH RP remains crucial for gauging the short-term outlook of the cryptocurrency market.
