Bitcoin Faces Weakest Monthly Growth Since July as Whales Counteract ETF Inflows
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing its weakest monthly performance in a year, presenting a perplexing market dynamic. Despite consistent inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), totaling $3.9 billion in net inflows over consecutive weeks, and robust global corporate treasury adoption, BTC’s price remains relatively stagnant, trading around $107,000 with only a 2% monthly gain. This subdued price action contrasts sharply with the positive ETF trends and corporate interest.
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a more complex picture. The Accumulation Trend Score, analyzing various wallet cohorts’ behavior, indicates mixed signals. Holders with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC exhibit fluctuating accumulation, suggesting opportunistic trading rather than consistent buying or selling. However, whales (holding 10,000 BTC or more) show a slight bias towards distribution, while smaller holders are net sellers.
This contrasts with the period between January and April 2025, when all cohorts were predominantly selling before accumulation resumed following Bitcoin’s bottoming out near $76,000. The current market appears to be in a consolidation phase, characterized by slowing profit-taking activity. Realized profits have reached $650 billion this cycle, exceeding the $550 billion of the previous cycle. Glassnode attributes this to a market cooldown, reinforcing the ongoing consolidation.
The disparity between positive ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption on one hand, and on-chain data indicating whale and small holder selling on the other, creates uncertainty. The substantial realized profits suggest that significant gains have already been secured, potentially contributing to the current consolidation. This situation underscores the complex interplay of factors influencing Bitcoin’s price and highlights the challenges in predicting short-term market movements. While long-term prospects may remain positive given institutional adoption and ETF inflows, the near-term outlook appears less certain due to the observed on-chain selling pressure.
