Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert
Bitcoin’s price action is currently being analyzed through the lens of the Elliott Wave Theory, a technique that identifies predictable patterns in market movements based on crowd psychology. A market analyst, John Glover, CIO of Ledn, predicts a significant rally for Bitcoin (BTC) to approximately $140,000 by the end of 2025, before a bear market commences in 2026.
This prediction stems from the Elliott Wave Theory’s identification of BTC’s current position within a five-wave impulse structure. Specifically, BTC is believed to be in wave iii of an extended wave 5. This wave iii is anticipated to reach a high of around $130,000 in the coming weeks, followed by a retracement (wave iv) to approximately $110,000 in September. Subsequently, the final impulse wave (v) will complete wave 5, culminating in a peak near $140,000.
Glover’s analysis contrasts with prevailing sentiment suggesting that institutional adoption, particularly through ETFs, has disrupted Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which typically predict a price peak this year followed by a prolonged bear market. He acknowledges that reaching the $140,000 region will likely spark debate regarding further price increases, with some possibly predicting significantly higher prices in 2026. However, Glover maintains his bearish outlook for 2026, anticipating a bear market after the projected peak.
The recent price decline, a 4% drop over the past week with lows under $112,000, is characterized as a typical retracement wave within the larger bullish impulse. This temporary dip, following profit-taking near $120,000 and losses in crypto-related stocks, is viewed as a natural breather before the anticipated rally. The Elliott Wave Theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, posits that market movements consist of five-wave impulse structures followed by three-wave corrective structures. These patterns repeat across different scales, enabling predictions based on the current market position within the broader context.
