Bitcoin Steady Above $104K as Traders Eye Historically Bullish Second Half
Crypto markets experienced a downturn on Thursday, influenced by several factors. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $104,700, down 1.2% in 24 hours, while Ether (ETH) fell 1.8% to just under $2,860. This subdued activity mirrors broader macroeconomic concerns following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady but maintain a cautious stance regarding inflation.
Market seasonality is playing a role. Historically quiet during June and July, crypto markets have entered a period of reduced activity. QCP Capital observed a decline in BTC implied volumes below 40%, indicating a lessening of risk premiums associated with recent geopolitical events. Open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts remains stable, but options markets show a negative skew, with put options (betting on price declines) trading at a premium to call options (betting on price increases). This suggests traders are hedging against potential short-term price drops.
Despite the cautious outlook, some analysts remain bullish. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger believes the technical picture remains supportive of further upward price movement. He notes BTC’s consolidation in a bullish pattern, suggesting a break above recent highs could propel it towards $145,000. Similarly, he anticipates ETH clearing $2,900, potentially leading to a rise to $3,400.
A positive development is the U.S. Senate’s approval of a stablecoin framework, contributing to a more regulatory-friendly global environment and bolstering institutional confidence. Kruger highlights the ongoing global progress towards greater regulatory clarity, fostering a more welcoming atmosphere for institutional crypto adoption.
However, the near-term outlook remains uncertain. Month-end options expiry flows, systematic portfolio rebalancing, and a lack of new market catalysts could keep BTC within the $102,000–$108,000 range. Despite this, the historical strength of crypto markets in the second half of the year is prompting some analysts to anticipate further price increases. The possibility of a significant upward price movement in the near future is considered a distinct possibility.
