Focus on Bitcoin-Yen’s ‘Descending Triangle’ as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise
Bitcoin’s price in USD remains range-bound below $120,000, lacking clear directional signals. Analysis of the BTC/JPY pair, however, reveals a descending triangle pattern at record highs. This bearish formation, characterized by lower highs and a horizontal support at ¥17,160,000 ($117,000), suggests a potential bearish trend reversal if this support breaks. Conversely, a breakout above the triangle could signal new all-time highs. Interestingly, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026 (76 basis points, up from 25 in April) and rising long-term government bond yields suggest continued economic support, potentially bolstering Bitcoin’s price. However, a strengthening yen, indicated by a narrowing spread between 30-year U.S.-Japan bond yields, could offset this bullish sentiment and introduce broad-based risk aversion, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s gains.
XRP experienced a significant 10% drop, finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally ($2.99). Despite a minor recovery to $3.10, bearish momentum signals, including a bearish Guppy multiple moving average and position below the Ichimoku cloud, suggest further downside. A retest of $2.99 is likely, with potential further declines to $2.57 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) if this support fails. A move above $3.35 is needed to reverse the bearish trend. The breakdown of both its uptrend and sideways channel confirms a bearish momentum shift.
Ether continues its descent within a downward-trending channel, exhibiting lower highs and lower lows. A bearish crossover of the 50- and 100-hour SMAs, coupled with a weakening 200-hour SMA and position below the Ichimoku cloud, points to continued downward pressure. Only a break above $3,740, reclaiming the Ichimoku cloud, could shift the immediate outlook bullish. The 200-hour SMA serves as crucial support; a breach could signal a prolonged downtrend.
Solana mirrors Ether’s pattern, trading within a descending channel below the Ichimoku cloud with decisively bearish Guppy indicators. The bearish bias persists below the $192 lower high. Any recovery rallies within the channel will likely encounter resistance at the channel’s upper boundary and the cloud’s underside.
